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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Strictly Come Dancing error

The BBC claims that it couldn’t foresee that a tie could occur in the semi-final of SCD. But if we simulate 10,000 draws for three couples with two scores between 33 and 40 (assuming that high scores are likely) then there is a 26% chance that there will be a tie for the total. There is a 1% chance there will be a 3 way tie even. It is actually odd that in six series this didn't occur before.

Here is the SAS program used to simulate the draws:


data scd;

do i=1 to 10000;

c1_1=33+round(7*uniform(23213));

c1_2=33+round(7*uniform(234234));

c2_1=33+round(7*uniform(5));

c2_2=33+round(7*uniform(423432));

c3_1=33+round(7*uniform(8778));

c3_2=33+round(7*uniform(765756));

if sum(of c1:)=sum(of c2:) or sum(of c1:)=sum(of c3:) or sum(of c2:)=sum(of c3:) then tie=1;

else tie=0;

if sum(of c1:)=sum(of c2:) and sum(of c1:)=sum(of c3:) then tie2=1;

else tie2=0;

output;

end;

run;



proc means data=scd;

run;

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