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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Strictly Come Dancing error

The BBC claims that it couldn’t foresee that a tie could occur in the semi-final of SCD. But if we simulate 10,000 draws for three couples with two scores between 33 and 40 (assuming that high scores are likely) then there is a 26% chance that there will be a tie for the total. There is a 1% chance there will be a 3 way tie even. It is actually odd that in six series this didn't occur before.

Here is the SAS program used to simulate the draws:


data scd;

do i=1 to 10000;

c1_1=33+round(7*uniform(23213));

c1_2=33+round(7*uniform(234234));

c2_1=33+round(7*uniform(5));

c2_2=33+round(7*uniform(423432));

c3_1=33+round(7*uniform(8778));

c3_2=33+round(7*uniform(765756));

if sum(of c1:)=sum(of c2:) or sum(of c1:)=sum(of c3:) or sum(of c2:)=sum(of c3:) then tie=1;

else tie=0;

if sum(of c1:)=sum(of c2:) and sum(of c1:)=sum(of c3:) then tie2=1;

else tie2=0;

output;

end;

run;



proc means data=scd;

run;

Monday, December 08, 2008

Riots in Greece

Things are pretty bad in Greece. Riots on the street and the
government is close to collapse due to the unveiling of a scandal
involving the church. However this is not the time to stop progress in
Greece. It needs to reform the public sector, bring the finances under
control and heal a diverging society. Some of the unrest is the
symptom of a youth without any perspectives - youth unemployment is
among the highest in the EU. In Greece you don't have any chances if
you don't know the right people. Corruption needs to be curtailed.
Karamanlis needs to unite the country to further the progress which
has been made. Now is not the time to go back to the old state
socialism.


Sent from my iPhone

Saturday, December 06, 2008

Authentic cooking

Authentic cooking means being true in your flavours and that means in
your ingredients. Putting fishpaste in a fish soup or putting too much
butter or cream into everything is not authenic. The same is true for
garlic as well. These flavours cover the natural flavour of your large
items.


Sent from my iPhone