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Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Model blaming

There has been some criticism of automatic trading, VaR, and quant funds. They are blamed for the upsurge in volatility. However, I think it's wrong to blame the models, surely it's still people creating and running these programs. If the trend resulting from the collective application of these models were predictable one could hedge against them.

Friday, October 12, 2007

DAX vs FTSE




DAX and FTSE are reaching new highs which the last reached seven years ago. The chart clearly shows that the German market is much more volatile than Britain.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Where is the vision?

The PBR was a disappointment, even more so than the recall of the election. If Brown wanted to give the country his vision of a better Britain, why did he let his Chancellor copy Tory policies. From a strategic point that might be understandable, but how does paying less inheritance tax make us a better Britain? They should have instead given more money to poor children in this country. The government is still committed to halve child poverty by 2010, but is nowhere near to reach this by 2010. They might opt for a last minute (if they are still in power) rescue in 2009 but what’s the point of doing too little for 13 years and then doing everything in one day. One generation of poor children will thank Brown for that.

Saturday, October 06, 2007

No UK election

Brown has called the election off. Did he get cold feet after recent polls? The Tories wouldn't have won, but Brown could have lost votes. It's a good day for Britain, because the business of continues. Tuesday will see the CSR, which will outline important spending plans for the needy in this country.

Monday, October 01, 2007

The French are best at geography

On Facebook you can see the average IQ in the Traveler Challenge Game. I have used that data and filtered those countries out with less than 100 recipients. I have also reweighted the IQ so that the average IQ is actually 100. This table proves Americans are only average in geography. English people are actually below average. French people are best, Germans come in at 12.

#
Country Average IQ
1
France 107.5282
2
Slovenia 107.2587
3
Switzerland 106.5947
4
Belgium 105.8536
5
Serbia 105.7477
6
Antarctica 105.6515
7
Austria 105.5072
8
Czech Republic 105.4879
9
Morocco 105.2666
10
Finland 105.1029
11
Netherlands 104.872
12
Germany 104.5351
13
Italy 104.5063
14
Cayman Islands 104.3427
15
Lithuania 104.0443
16
Luxembourg 104.0251
17
Bosnia and Herzegovina 104.0154
18
Croatia 103.8518
19
Cote d'Ivoire 103.8133
20
Azerbaijan 103.8037
21
Sweden 103.4188
22
Slovakia 103.3514
23
Spain 103.3321
24
Hungary 103.13
25
Estonia 103.1012
26
Poland 103.0049
27
Denmark 102.7643
28
Brazil 102.6296
29
Mauritius 102.5911
30
Costa Rica 102.4467
31
Bulgaria 102.4371
32
Portugal 102.0137
33
Japan 101.8597
34
Greece 101.8308
35
Israel 101.7923
36
Romania 101.7538
37
Russia 101.7057
38
Chile 101.5998
39
Vietnam 101.571
40
Scotland 101.5325
41
Kenya 101.5132
42
Argentina 101.3977
43
Ireland 101.2053
44
Norway 101.2053
45
Peru 101.1956
46
Thailand 101.1668
47
Zimbabwe 101.1475
48
New Zealand 101.0032
49
Bermuda 100.8107
50
Tanzania 100.7529
51
Ukraine 100.7048
52
Colombia 100.6567
53
South Korea 100.6278
54
Cyprus 100.6086
55
Iceland 100.5508
56
United States 100.4835
57
Guatemala 100.3776
58
Ecuador 100.368
59
Northern Ireland 100.2814
60
Kazakhstan 100.0985
61
El Salvador 99.76166
62
China 99.6943
63
Qatar 99.68467
64
Turkey 99.61731
65
Australia 99.57881
66
Honduras 99.43445
67
Isle Of Man 99.29009
68
Venezuela 99.18423
69
Mexico 99.011
70
England 98.65491
71
Canada 98.54905
72
Channel Islands 98.53943
73
Palestine 98.44319
74
Bahrain 98.2892
75
Syria 98.21221
76
United Arab Emirates 98.17372
77
Lebanon 97.81763
78
Wales 97.46155
79
Bolivia 97.11508
80
Taiwan 97.10546
81
Malta 97.01884
82
Indonesia 96.98035
83
Trinidad and Tobago 96.83599
84
Panama 96.73975
85
Malaysia 96.58577
86
Kuwait 96.49915
87
India 96.45103
88
Singapore 96.41254
89
South Africa 96.34517
90
Sri Lanka 96.28743
91
Dominican Republic 95.8736
92
Philippines 95.53676
93
Bangladesh 95.47902
94
Hong Kong 95.40202
95
Jordan 94.35302
96
Egypt 94.34339
97
Saudi Arabia 93.69859
98
Pakistan 93.00567
99
Nigeria 92.15876

Fifa ranking

Eight out of the top 10 football nations are European. England has jumped up three places. Favourite for the Euro 2008 Germany is fourth.

Ranking
TeamPts
Sep 07
+/- Ranking
Aug 07
+/- Pts
Aug 07
1
Italy Italy14882Up58
2
Argentina Argentina14510Equal-40
3
Brazil Brazil1444-2Down-64
4
Germany Germany13301Up-7
5
Netherlands Netherlands12462Up35
6
France France1220-2Down-160
7
Spain Spain11781Up13
8
Portugal Portugal11692Up12
9
England England11653Up74
10
Croatia Croatia1151-4Down-72