Saturday, April 14, 2007

25 years of forecasting

In 1982, the International Institute of Forecasters set up the Journal of Forecasting, followed in 1985 by the International Journal of Forecasting. The primary aim of their foundation, laid out in the first issues, was to take a “multi-disciplinary perspective”; all types of forecasting methods were of interest. Last year the IJF was celebrating a quarter century of forecasting with this special issue, which can be accessed for free.

Herein, Allen and Morzuch ask some important questions

In the next 25 years, what new avenues will open up? With ever greater computational capacity, more complex models with larger data sets seem the way to the future. Will they require the automatic model selection methods that have recently been introduced? Preliminary evidence suggests that these methods can do well. The quality of aggregate data is no better than it was. Will greater use of more disaggregated data be sufficient to provide better forecasts?

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