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Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Growth of blogs


According to two websites 1 2 in July 2005 there were 70 million blogs on the internet. They also assert that every five months the number of blogs doubles. This implies a monthly growth rate of 15% and 428% for the year. Thirdly it is said that only half of the blogs are active after 3 months. I used these three pieces of information to derive a trend.

The number implies that in January 2003 there were about 1 million blogs. If half of those were active then than always half of all existing blogs are active. The graph below shows that we can expect to have 2 billion active blogs (blue line) by the end of 2007.

If we assume that every month an active blog adds 1KB to its site than we can expect 15TB (pink line) of stored information by the end of 2007. This assumption excludes any follow-up comments on the web pages. This also raises the question whether the internet can run out of space and what storing policies are efficient and fair.



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